Well folks, I’ve gone and done it again. I’ve managed to get in to a long, drawn out Facebook debate with a couple of my friends who happen to be global warming deniers and I tell you, it was a blast! For the purposes of this transcript, I’ll call my friends Cleanthes and Demea. At the end of the day, I didn’t change their minds and of course, they didn’t change mind, so for those neutrals out there, I’ll let you decide who carried the day. Enjoy:
Here’s the post that started it all:
Autodidactosaurus: Interesting but not at all surprising academic study on the relationship between exposure to cable news channel content and acceptance of global warming as a scientific norm, as well as how political partisanship moderates these relationships.
Demea: This is largely due to the global powers that be making it a live or die political issue leading to power grab based on shoddy science. It’s called a back lash. Al Gore’s many distortions and mainstream media’s blind acceptance of his distortions played no small role. He’s the modern William Jennings Bryan.
The shoddy science I refer to is primarily the computer models and a lot politically motivated rubber stamping of some crappy work by the IPCC.
And this supposed conensus’s ignorance of statistics or cost benefit analysis.
Cleanthes: Funny how causal factors are ignored by some who purport to apply the scientific method they so revere…people watch what they want because of what they believe, not believe what they do because of what they watch. Those of us who don’t fall for the ruse try not to subject ourselves to the lemmings who do.
Autodidactosaurus: Demea – I think this paper is illustrative of the power of one sided reporting and frankly it’s a bit astounding, given the overwhelming consensus in the scientific community. Al Gore or not, to me, you either trust climate scientists (computer models and all) or you don’t. Peer reviewed scientific evidence suggests that global warming is occurring and that humans are the dominant forcing function for that change. Climate scientists no longer debate this as an open issue in need of more experimentation or hypothesis testing and there are no national or major scientific institutions anywhere in the world that dispute the theory of anthropogenic climate change.
Cleanthes: 8 million years ago the Atlantic Coast ran through Columbia SC and gave us the sand hills. Who caused the change?
Even though there is an overwhelming body of evidence that solar activity drives a significant (even a majority) of global temp changes…the most famous and most quoted “models” don’t even consider it as an input or causal factor. Please explain.
What makes you think you know the “correct” temp for the planet? Its always been changing, right?
Demea: I have a real problem with this statement:
“Al Gore or not, to me, you either trust climate scientists (computer models and all) or you don’t.”
Not to put too fine a point on it, but doesn’t science occur BECAUSE OF skepticism? What’s this trust thing? When it comes to science, I trust proof better than people. Science, hard science, is supposed to be binary. And yes, I understand that some things are so complex or so theoretical and abstract, that getting a nice demonstrable 2+2=4 result is difficult. And you know what? That’s fine. That’s what academia is for.
But, when you start taking these theories based on science ‘that suggests’ this or that, regardless of whatever the poll results of scientists are, and trying to turn global economic policy over to a bunch of chin scratching transnationalists who think they know better than you or me what is best for us. THAT’S when I put a really high bar for these science to cross. A consensus does nothing for me. I want observable proof that doing X will solve Y problem.
None of the computer models to my knowledge predicted that plateauing of the temperatures the last decade and a half or the unusually harsh winters the last 3 years. There may be a rational reason for this in AGW theory. Fine. I’d like to hear it. Better yet, I’d like to see that this all knowing consensus predicted it.
Again, my problem with AGW is the political angle and THAT is why you have the back lash. You have non-intellectual simpletons asking pretty reasonable questions (I know, how dare they). How can you know that big ball of plasma in the sky is a non-factor? So, CO2 ‘poisons’ the atmostphere? Do plants agree with that? No one in their right mind would bet hard money on a 10 day weather forecast but we want to bet global prosperity on a 100 year forecast? We’ve had wide swings in CO2 that pre-dated SUVs. How exactly is this different? How can I trust weather measuring equipment that seems to have a high percentage of which placed in urban environments? So, science has advanced so much that a 100 year sample size of data of varying quality tells us all we need to know about climate history and how to predict the future? And this is not viewed as hubris? And finally, so the earth warming a few degrees is bad because…why again?
And yes, there is a consensus, but this ‘consensus’ basically agrees that we’re warming, man is partly responsible but there is a big gap in the ranges to what extent we are warming and how much we are causing it. The reason Al Gore is such a windbag is that he takes the worse case scenario from the outlier studies and uses that as fact. His movie had ‘facts’ that not even the ‘consensus’ backs up. More than a few politicians play that game.
Lastly, I work in software. Not only software, but forecasting software. I know a thing or two about the complexity involved in developing such software. And I know the complexity of it when all the variables are known. To say that this consensus knows all the variables in climate models with great certainty is a level of ‘trust’ that borders on faith. So, I am certainly a sceptic that a bunch of professors who learned Fortran as a hobby in 1985 can put together a computer model without the software discipline it takes to actually do such a thing. The FDA and the DOD have some very rigid rules around software development that can be sold to the government or in regulated industries (like say pharma). I know of no evidence that these computer models we are supposed to trust actually pass those tests. The East Anglia emails and code dump from the ClimateGate scandal merely reinforced my belief that some scientists are political hacks doing hack programming to build models meant to scare people into allowing centralized control of the economy.
You show me a computer model that nailed its predictions, complete with seasonal variations, across the globe over a 10-15 year period, and then I MIGHT ‘trust’ this consenus. Until then, I don’t want this ‘consensus’ within 10 light years of the political process.
Autodidactosaurus: I hear ya Demea – so let’s back up. Can we first agree that science absolutely works because of skepticism, among scientists? Not because you or I or Al Gore or Rick Perry, who are not scientists, are skeptical of their findings. The whole process of peer review is based on scientific skepticism (hey, here’s what I found, here’s how I did it, go poke holes in it fellow scientists, what? no holes, ok, so we might have something here, let’s go do more experiments, rinse and repeat 😉 I’m saying I trust the outcomes of this process and that it doesn’t have to have mathematical precision – if the weight of the evidence is so great, then it gets added to the human knowledge bucket.
To your second point. that’s not to say that there aren’t entire sections of the population who will continue to doubt scientific findings despite the weight of evidence; perhaps those findings are in conflict with a personal belief system, or perhaps, the policy reaction to those findings requires a multi-national response in order to create a mitigation strategy (which is another way of saying nations have to give up some sovereignty) which is a very tough pill to swallow without a doubt! I think that’s where you’re coming from on global warming. While the evidence is no longer debated among scientists, the practical question of “what to do about it” and who pays and how much, etc. is a much different set of issues. Maybe the answer is we don’t’ do anything at all thing about it? But the scientific community also predicts an increase in erratic and powerful weather events as global warming continues – so not doing anything will also have costs associated with it as well. I think answering these kinds of questions is far more complicated than the science!
Finally, the science I’ve read indicate that the earth’s heat is not leveling off at all, but continues to accumulate. In fact, the most recent piece of “news” on the subject has more to do with a scientist changing his mind (i.e., Richard Muller’s Koch funded research validating what 97% of climate scientists already accept) – which means it’s a non story from a science perspective but only gets press because of who funded his research (but David Koch helps fund NOVA too – so I don’t get the rub on that one 😉
Ok – dang you guys are good! This is good practice for me before Thanksgiving dinner! haha! Ok, I only have time to talk about the sun and then I gotta run. So you are saying that the sun is not factored in to global warming models; but I believe we need to be a bit more specific. There have been multiple hypotheses posited which suggest and in some cases prove that the sun is a major forcing factor including: direct solar effect (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/meehl_additivity.pdf , http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/jma/meehl_solar.pdf , http://sun.stanford.edu/LWS_Dynamo_2009/61797.web.pdf ), indirect solar effects such as ultraviolet radiation (http://individual.utoronto.ca/ekwan/ozone.pdf, and galactic cosmic rays (http://rjes.wdcb.ru/v06/tje04163/tje04163.htm, http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/6/5543/2006/acpd-6-5543-2006.html, http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1885/2010/acp-10-1885-2010.html), and Dansgaard-Oeschger Events. That said, here’s a nice summary paper though if you don’t want to dig through the calculus above which wraps up pretty nicely the fact that 1: the Sun influences climate and 2: that over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures: http://www.eiscat.rl.ac.uk/Members/mike/publications/pdfs/2007/Lockwood_PRSA1.pdf. Ok, I gotta run, but hopefully I can address your other critiques as well. Later gents! (I’m telling you, it’d be much more fun to talk about these things over beers – or Gentlemen Jack Mr. Cleanthes! haha!)
(Here I had to leave to take my daughter to a soccer charity event where she was volunteering)
Cleanthes: When continued funding (and therefore collective livelihoods) for research is justified by certain results, your peer process tends to lose validity…I’m not saying, I’m just sayin’…
Demea: As if on queue:
It’s hard to ‘trust’ scientists who have an ax to grind (note the conversations around trying to avoid FOA requests). Seems like confirmation bias would be a concern. I know it’s considered a concern if anyone accepted money from Exxon or the anti-Christs (aka the Koch brothers).
BTW, it’s the East Anglia folks who were nailed in the previous e-mail dump to have been trying to cook the peer review process. These are also the guys most closely associated with the IPCC.
Again, I’m not trying to paint the entire climate science community as tainted or fraudulent. I am merely trying to note that scepticism is warrented and necessary. And massive layers of proof, not concensus or peer reviews, must be achieved before we attempt any ‘multi-national’ solution to the supposed problem. If you care anything about freedom, given the general hostility to democracy and freedom by the folks most agressively pursuing these solutions, such a high threshhold should be the minimum requirement.
Lastly, surely writing a statement such as “While the evidence is no longer debated among scientists,” should make you feel a little dirty right? Leaving aside that it’s not true (many scientists, real scientists are debating the evidence all the time, the validity of the temparature equipment as just one example), if you believe in science at all, you would hope that evidence is always being debated until the theory turns to law. AGW is not law. Not even close. If for no other reason than it’s damn heard to accurately simulate the problem in a lab. I know of a couple of scientists who actually believe CO2 increases are a trailing factor to temparature rises, instead of being the cause.
Also, and I certainly may be wrong here, but peer review to my understanding is a review of the methology, not the results. It is not a full audit or reproduction of the entire scientific process and findings. Echoing Clenathe’s point, the climate science community (largely because of its integration with political goals) is a big peer pressure community and to agressively go against your consensus is professionall problematic, not to mention a danger to your livelyhood (since the grant money is mostly handed out by people who most definately want their agenda advanced).
I’ll check out your links later. I would be interested. If the sun is considered a big factor, it seems the thrust of man’s ability to ‘fix’ the ‘problem’ is highly limited.
And Autodidactosaurus, even if I get a bit snarky, I do love this stuff.
Autodidactosaurus: No snark at all Demea, I too love it! 😉 Ok, here’s the original CRU rebuttal: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/14/oxburgh-uea-cleared-malpractice and the very real time link you posted says absolutely nothing other than some dude’s emails got hacked – again. I don’t think it’s a conspiracy until it’s proven that the evidence has been doctored to support the story (ala the tobacco industry research – which is junk science of the highest order). Until that such time as that happens – it’s a non issue for me.
Furthermore, to suggest that funding somehow automatically compromises scientific integrity leads me to the question, which science then do you believe? Only government sponsored science, industry sponsored science, military sponsored science, privately sponsored science, academic science? And which bodies of science are exempt? Medicine, quantum mechanics, biology, geology, astronomy, physics? The thing about global warming is that all of the science points to the same conclusion.
So do I feel dirty? haha! Well, if I’m dirty I’m in good company:
American Association for the Advancement of Science: “The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society….The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years.”
American Geophysical Union: “The Earth’s climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century.”
American Chemical Society: “Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles.”
American Institute of Physics: “The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics has endorsed a position statement on climate change adopted by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Council:”
Ok, so what about Europe?
The European Physical Society: “The emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, among which carbon dioxide is the main contributor, has amplified the natural greenhouse effect and led to global warming.
European Science Foundation: There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change.”
What about down under?
Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies: “Global climate change is real and measurable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years.”
What does those Fortran dorks at NASA have to say: “The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane to higher levels than at any point during the last 650,000 years. Scientists agree it is very likely that most of the global average warming since the mid-20th century is due to the human-induced increases in greenhouse gases, rather than to natural causes.”
How about meteorologists and oceanographers?
American Meteorological Society: “Human activities have become a major source of environmental change. Of great urgency are the climate consequences of the increasing atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases.”
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: “Global climate change and global warming are real and observable … It is highly likely that those human activities that have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been largely responsible for the observed warming since 1950.”
How about our friends in Paleoclimatology at the American Quaternary Association: “Few credible Scientists now doubt that humans have influenced the documented rise of global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution,” citing “the growing body of evidence that warming of the atmosphere, especially over the past 50 years, is directly impacted by human activity.”
Cleanthes: Just take a look at who funded the original study you posted –>the Betsy and Jesse Fink Foundation; the 11th Hour Project; and the Pacific Foundation…all radical climate change proponents or investors in alternative energy companies. Would they be giving money to groups who would come up with different results? Answer=NO. Same thing holds true with grants to build “models”…and since we are back on your original post, the data seem to suggest that CNN is more one-sided than Fox…
Autodidactosaurus: The underlying assumption behind this study is that global warming is real. So if by CNN being one-sided you mean that they tend to report in a tone accepting of the science, then I’d say that’s right. As for the funding of the study – again those groups, including the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, are asking some form of the question, “is there an anti-science bias in certain media outlets?” once again predicated on the idea that the science is correct. The answer according to the data is yes – and for whatever reason – Fox news reports on global warming in a fashion that is contrary with the prevailing scientific consensus. I would hope that if CNN or MSNBC were also reporting stories that didn’t match the science, that Feldman et al. would have shown that as well regardless of who financed the study – but as it happens, it didn’t 😉
Cleanthes: Bad assumption, obviously.
(at this point it should be noted that I felt all pretense of rational discourse with Cleanthes getting sucked right out of the dialogue)
Demea: Leaving aside the Wolves-Henhouse nature of the university’s investigation, I’d suggest you read up on those e-mails and on the code dump (which included forced values in some of the results). I’d even suggest you do it on some skeptical sites to get an alternative interpretation and at least understand how one could come to some of these conclusions. Most skeptics are lovers of science and are not intellegent designers or some such. The media tried like mad to avoid that story when it hit. When if finally did, they made sure to start every article with the qualifier ‘while the scientific consensus still believes yada yada’ so that they won’t be seen as on the wrong side.
Seriously, you make a very willfully naive assumption to believe that the news media begins with the idea that the science is sound…because its sound (and are not at all bought into the political and idealogical underpinnings of the environmental movement).
Again, the problem is the political issue that is at the root of this. The far left has mostly hard control of academia since the ’70s (this is even more true in Europe, if you can imagine). Poll after poll has shown journalists lean much farther to the left than even the Democratic mainstream. So, to believe that all this scienceand the favorable coverage of it has no agenda behind it is to almost fetishize credentials in the name of science. The policy proposals all move in one direction (the government dictates economic activity to assuage the computer models) with very little free market, private sector or personal choice oriented solutions (i.e. the way we used to do conservation in this country).
We hear endlessly that we can’t trust Exxon et al because they are profit oriented, but no one seems to bat an eye at how lavish the head of the IPCC lives, or the fact that the NASA guy (Hanson?) has pulled in over a million bucks in ‘consulting’ fees. Being a Green Expert is very very lucrative. Especially in Europe.
I’ll believe that the scientists are really only concerned with the science when they make a joint statement that says that the term ‘denier’ is both vitriolic propaganda and anti-science. They should welcome the skeptics if they are really men and women of science. This seems pretty straightforward to me.
Autodidactosaurus: Demea – I’m not making a naive assumption that the media begins with the idea that the science is sound. Frankly, I don’t watch any cable news channels so I don’t care other than it seems that many conservatives are getting duped by Fox – unless Cleanthes is correct and folks showed up at Fox’s table with this view already on the menu. For me it’s like Huntsman says if I may paraphrase, when the Republican party becomes the anti-science party, we’re sunk. I chunk a lot of what you call “media”: talk radio, cable news, op-eds, blogosphere, under the infotainment realm to be taken as such.
In contrast to media, most of the links I’ve posted in here go to actual scientific papers just dealing with the impact of heliocentric global warming alone – since that was one of the arguments made against it – they weren’t links to Fox, CNN, MSNBC, blogs but to the actual primary source. So you can read for yourself and arrive at your own conclusions about the science.
I’m going to close my piece of this out by saying there’s either a fantastic global conspiracy which requires the coordination of experimental results among otherwise classically skeptical individual scientists or scientific teams in physics, geology, agronomy, meteorology, oceanography, astrophysics, paleoclimatology, geoengineering, ocean acidification, atmospheric chemistry, dendrochronology, geochronology, glaciology, hydrometeorology, etc., from competing universities, governments, non-profits, for-profits, etc. as well as the coordination of their publications in unaffiliated journals such as Nature, Science, Climate Dynamics, Reviews of Geophysics, Journal of Geophysical Research, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Climate Research, Earth Interactions, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems (GGG), Geophysical Research Letters (GRL),Transactions American Geophysical Union, Deutche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and dozens of others, and finally the coordination of statements in scientific consensus bodies such as the ones I listed above – from which there is no longer a single dissenting opinion – either all that is happening – or we can believe the evidence that global warming is real. I’ll point you to one last study (with no media affiliation: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf)
If you guys chose not to believe it, that’s fine too. I still like you both!
That said, your certainty of this as a diabolical ruse has really piqued my interest so help me out – point me to the countervailing evidence. Maybe I’m the one being duped here! 😉
Stay tuned – sorry I had to pull an argumentum ad ignorantum because I know there is no evidence to the contrary, but my goodness, if I fly you to Cairo, show the Great Pyramid, let you drive up to it and touch it, if you still choose not to believe it’s there in front of you, there’s nothing more I can do.